In brief
Volodymyr Fesenko warned that renewed three-way negotiations could bring demands over Ukraine’s NATO prospects, rather than a ceasefire.
Russia could use renewed talks with Ukraine and the United States to press Kyiv to accept formal neutrality, political analyst Volodymyr Fesenko told RBC-Ukraine in a podcast interview published on October 24. He predicted Moscow would also seek a NATO commitment to abandon the prospect of Ukrainian membership.
Fesenko presented those demands as his assessment of Russia’s likely position. He cautioned that agreeing to resume negotiations did not mean agreeing to end the war or establish a ceasefire. Citing remarks by Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov, he said Moscow’s focus was the postwar security order and Ukraine’s and Russia’s places within it.
In the same interview, Fesenko expressed doubt that a possible meeting between Donald Trump, Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping would produce an agreement on spheres of influence. The interview discussed a possible meeting in China in the second half of November; Fesenko said its timing, location and agenda still needed agreement.
He argued that Putin would value the symbolism of appearing alongside the US and Chinese leaders, while Beijing had little incentive to elevate Russia’s geopolitical standing. Fesenko also said an agreement to end the war could not be reached without Ukraine’s and Europe’s consent.