In brief
King's College London researcher Elena Grossfeld says Moscow could seek to intimidate allies before testing their willingness to respond collectively.
Russia's nuclear threats could be intended to intimidate NATO leaders ahead of a possible limited military operation against a member state, intelligence and military strategy researcher Elena Grossfeld told Forbes, according to UNIAN's October 7 report.
Grossfeld, of King's College London, suggested Moscow could target a Baltic state to test the alliance's willingness to respond collectively. This was her assessment of a possible scenario; UNIAN's report did not present evidence of a prepared attack.
She also cited conditional Danish military intelligence assessments that Russia could develop the capacity to wage a local war against a neighbouring country within the next few years. Those assessments describe potential capabilities under certain circumstances, rather than a deadline for an inevitable attack.
Grossfeld highlighted Vladimir Putin's warning that a direct attack on Russia, including the Kaliningrad region, could prompt consideration of all available weapons. UNIAN's report presented no evidence of NATO plans to act against Kaliningrad.