In brief
Russia could use a proposed ceasefire in Kostiantynivka to build up forces for a possible advance north towards Druzhkivka, according to an ISW assessment reported by RBC-Ukraine.
The Institute for the Study of War assessed that Russia could seek military gains from a proposed pause in fighting in Kostiantynivka, RBC-Ukraine reported. Evacuating civilians is Russia’s stated purpose for the proposal; a buildup of forces and a subsequent offensive are possible consequences identified by the analysts.
According to RBC-Ukraine, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov renewed calls for the humanitarian mission on November 13, following Vladimir Putin’s proposal on November 12. Peskov urged US and European officials to press Ukraine to accept a local ceasefire.
ISW argued that the earlier ceasefire in Oleshky could not serve as a model because battlefield conditions differ. According to the institute’s assessment, Russian forces do not control Kostiantynivka, whereas Oleshky is fully under Russian occupation.
The analysts said a Russian buildup around Kostiantynivka could create conditions for an advance north towards Druzhkivka, described as one of the most fortified settlements in Ukraine’s defensive “Fortress Belt.” RBC-Ukraine’s report did not specify when the proposed ceasefire would take place or how long it would last.
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