In brief
Ukraine Facility Platform's forecast links energy strikes to pressure on civilians, the economy and peace negotiations.
Russian attacks on Ukraine's energy infrastructure could serve several military, economic and political aims during the 2026–2027 heating season, according to a Ukraine Facility Platform analysis reported by RBC-Ukraine on October 21.
The analysts identify seven possible objectives: depriving cities of power and heat and driving migration; destabilising domestic politics; intimidating foreign partners; testing tactics for other fronts; gaining negotiating leverage; diverting resources from the battlefield; and weakening the economy.
They warn of prolonged electricity shortages and attempts to isolate individual regions from the national grid. Their forecast links autumn pressure to negotiations and political events, January risks to cold weather and urban utilities, and February risks to depleted equipment, air-defence missile stocks and finances.
These are the analysts' assessments of possible Russian aims and scenarios. RBC-Ukraine's account does not establish an operational attack schedule or show that a nationwide blackout will occur.