In brief
Energy analyst Oleksandr Vizir outlined a conditional winter scenario, with outages varying by district, network damage and temperature.
Kyiv could face 12–16 hours without electricity each day if temperatures remain around −10°C, according to Oleksandr Vizir, energy and climate coordinator at the Ukraine Facility Platform think tank. RBC-Ukraine reported his assessment on October 21, citing an interview with the YouTube channel Tse Baza.
Vizir described that range as the most likely conditional scenario at that temperature. He said eight hours of daily outages would be highly optimistic and possible around freezing, rather than at −10°C, while 16 hours or more would represent a bad scenario. His assessment is an expert forecast, rather than an operator's outage schedule.
Conditions would vary with local damage and connections to critical infrastructure, he said. Kyiv's multiple connections to the wider electricity system improve resilience, but do not ensure uninterrupted power for individual facilities.
Vizir said emergency power could get metro passengers to a station and allow them to leave, while regular train services could depend on repairs to key external substations. He also described the water utility's backup capacity as incomplete, saying wastewater services had more reserves than water supply without guaranteeing continuous sewerage operations.