In brief
Eurasia Group’s Mujtaba Rahman says a Marine Le Pen presidency could undermine European funding for Ukraine, its EU membership prospects and sanctions against Russia. He considers the combination of conditions behind his worst-case scenario unlikely.
Mujtaba Rahman, director for Europe at Eurasia Group, warned that a victory by Marine Le Pen in France’s presidential election could weaken European support for Ukraine. UNIAN reported his assessment from an article in The Guardian.
Rahman argued that Le Pen would suspend French bilateral aid to Ukraine if she became president. Her opposition to increasing France’s contribution to the EU budget could also jeopardise funding across the bloc, he said, while her presidency could threaten Ukraine’s EU membership prospects and sanctions against Russia.
He said the burden of support could fall on a small group of Northern and Western European countries, which would struggle to replace contributions from much of Southern and Central Europe. In his worst-case scenario, Ukraine could be forced to accept a settlement on Moscow’s terms.
That outcome, Rahman argued, would require several adverse developments to coincide: a complete end to US military and intelligence support, exhausted European funding without a bilateral alternative, and Russian escalation backed by a new mobilisation. He considered each factor possible individually but their combination unlikely, urging EU capitals to take the risks seriously.
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