In brief
The previous forecast was 4%. The revised outlook assumes active fighting continues throughout 2027.
The World Bank has lowered its forecast for Ukraine's economic growth in 2027 to 1.5%, from 4%, UNIAN reported on October 7, citing the bank's Europe and Central Asia Economic Update.
The revision reflects intensified attacks on critical infrastructure and a changed assumption about the war's duration. The forecast now assumes active fighting throughout 2027, whereas the bank previously assumed the war would end by the close of 2026. This is a forecasting assumption, rather than a prediction establishing when the war will end.
According to UNIAN's account, the bank forecasts growth of 1.2% in 2026 and 3% in 2028. Labour shortages, high energy costs and damage to production and transport infrastructure continue to constrain the economy.
The bank also identifies external financing as a risk for 2027. Ukraine's substantial funding needs remain partly uncovered, with negotiations involving international partners still under way.